Forecasting of Maximum Temperature in Yogyakarta With Seasonal Autoregression Moving Average (SARMA) Model

Abstract

This study seeks to provide accurate maximum air temperature forecasts for Yogyakarta using the Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARMA) model, a time series method that accounts for both short-term and seasonal variations. As Yogyakarta experiences a steady rise in temperatures with significant seasonal fluctuations, accurately predicting these changes is essential for public health planning and energy management. Utilizing daily maximum temperature data, the SARMA model identified critical seasonal patterns and showed robust performance in predicting future temperature values. The model’s accuracy was validated through residual and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) tests, demonstrating its effectiveness in generating reliable forecasts. This research offers valuable insights for urban planning and climate-related decision-making, particularly in managing the health risks posed by rising temperatures in Yogyakarta.